Top 20

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Lookin At Lucky

Graded Stakes Earnings Position:  #1

Trainer:  Bob Baffert
Owner:  Mike Pegram
Pedigree:  Smart Strike – Private Feeling by Belong To Me
Jockey:  Garrett Gomez

Lookin At Lucky, last year’s 2-Year Old Champion, will likely go off as the 2nd favorite behind Eskendereya in this year’s Kentucky Derby.  With an 8 – 6 – 1 – 1 record, Lookin At Lucky certainly has the past experience, boasting 3 Grade 1 wins in his short career.

Lookin At Lucky broke is maiden at Hollywood Park on July 11th, 2009 under Garrett Gomez.   He then went on to win the Grade 2 Best Pal Stakes, Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity, Grade 1 Norfolk, and Grade 1 CashCall Futurity as a two year old.  His lone 2-year old loss came as the favorite in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Championship, where he finished 2nd from gate 13.

To start off his 3-year old campaign, Lookin At Lucky shipped to Arkansas to try dirt for the first time in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aVy3M2U4QDI

Lookin At Lucky held on by a nose as he was challenged down the stretch by Noble’s Promise, another potential starter on May 1st.  Baffert was happy with his performance on the dirt, and so he was shipped back to California to run in the historic Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.

When April 3rd rolled around, the sun was shining and everyone was ready for a great day of racing at Santa Anita.  Lookin At Lucky looked brilliant in the paddock and was made the post time favorite.  Unfortunately, on this day, if it could have gone wrong, it did for Lookin At Lucky.  Bumped, jostled, and nearly toppled over the fence, he fought back to finish a respectable 3rd to Sidney’s Candy and Setsuko.

Lookin At Lucky will make his next start in the May 1st Kentucky Derby

Lookin At Lucky - Kentucky Derby Starter

After the race, Garrett Gomez and Victor Espinoza came to physical blows over the race.  Gomez was not happy that Espinoza saw Lookin At Lucky coming on the inside and decided to veer his horse over.  Gomez then had to wait through a treacherous couple of days as Baffert and company contemplated whether or not to yank Gomez off the horse.

But, in the end, Baffert, Pegram, and Gomez have another live shot in the Kentucky Derby.  You might be able to get a lot better price for this stud because of his trouble in the Santa Anita Derby.  Take a long hard look at Lookin At Lucky before you place your bets on May 1st.

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Here’s the list of Graded Stakes Earners that have stated they are pointing towards the Kentucky Derby.  This doesn’t include the fillies and D’ Funnybone.

The blue horses below were the winners of the Arkansas Derby and the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes on April 10th.  The Top 20 qualify for the Derby!

Graded Stakes Earnings list for the starters of the Kentucky Derby on May 1st

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Noble's Promise is questionable for the Kentucky Derby

Noble's Promise, #2 on the Graded Earnings List, has become questionable for the May 1st Kentucky Derby.

A few key injuries occur in every Derby prep season, and this one will be no different.  However, last year the injuries didn’t just trickle in, they came with a hurricane-like frenzy.  And unfortunately, it looks like this Derby season might be shaping up in the exact same manner.

Last year racing fans watched the favorites drop off in alarming fashion:  Square Eddie, Old Fashioned, Quality Road, and morning line favorite, I Want Revenge.  This week we’ve had two dropouts, with a potential game changing third.

Uh Oh Bango (fractured left front cannon bone), fourth place finisher in the Arkansas Derby, and Odysseus (behind knee bone chip), winner of the Tampa Bay Derby, are both out of the running for the May 1st Kentucky Derby.

Uh Oh Bango’s injury has a larger effect on the Derby setup than did Odysseus.  Currently, Odysseus holds the #26 position on the Graded Earnings List.  However, Uh Oh Bango is in the #21 spot.  This means that Jackson Bend, one of my personal favorites, is now the new bubble horse!

But the question of who will be in the starting gate on May 1st gets a little more interesting…

Noble’s Promise, the #2 horse on the Graded Earnings List, is now questionable for the Derby.  He came out of this week’s Arkansas Derby with some cuts and scrapes from some issues out of the starting gate.  It’s also been noted that he ran with a slight lung infection.  His owners aren’t sure whether they want to pursue the Derby or wait until he’s 100%.

And so as we inch closer and closer to post time, check back as we continue to keep an eye on the Top 20 list.

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Here are the entries for this weekend’s last two Kentucky Derby prep races.  Check out the Graded Earnings list to see who’s on the verge of making or missing the starting gate on May 1st.  Remember, the Top 20 Graded Earners will be allowed to run in the Kentucky Derby.

Arkansas Derby – Oaklawn Park

Noble's Promise, Super Saver, Dublin take on the Arkansas Derby field at Oaklawn Park

Noble’s Promise is a shoe in for the Grand Daddy, currently ranking 3rd in Graded Stakes Earnings with $708,000.  Dublin looks to have previously secured his starting position in the Kentucky Derby, boasting the #17 position with graded earnings at $273,208.  However, Uh Oh Bango (#25), SuperSaver (#29), and Northern Giant (#36) all need a big score in the Arkansas Derby to qualify for the Kentucky Derby on May 1st.

Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – Keeneland

The last major prep for the Kentucky Derby, will the graded earnings list shift significantly?
This will be an interesting race, as it’s likely the last race in which these horses can secure their place in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.  Currently, Interactif is sitting in the #18 spot with $270,450.  The Blue Grass has all sorts of bubble horses, including Aikenite (#22), Make Music For Me (#23), Odysseus (#26), Pleasant Prince (#30), and Paddy O’Prado (#37).  How the Toyota Blue Grass shapes up will have a huge impact on who we see make, and who we see get bumped from, the Kentucky Derby.

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For this weeks Paulick Derby Index Eskendereya has widened the gap between he and Lookin at Lucky with a dominating performance in the Wood Memorial.  Sidney’s Candy, the winner of the Santa Anita Derby, jumped 2 spots to 3rd.  Noble’s Promise, who was nudged at the wire in the Rebel by Lookin at Lucky dropped a spot to number 4.

Paulick's Kentucky Derby ranking list for Top 20 horses

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Here’s Ray Paulick’s Kentucky Derby Rankings, updated after this last weekend, March 20th.

Notice that D’ Funnybone, even though he won the Swale Stakes by 1 1/4 lengths, was dropped from the 20th position.  This is due to Pompa Jr., D’ Funnybone’s owner, saying that he’s not interested in pushing D’ Funnybone towards the Derby, but will likely point him towards the Preakness.

What are you thoughts on the list below?  Leave a comment!

Kentucky Derby Top 20 rankings throughout the prep races

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