Paddy O’Prado

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In a slopfest at Churchill Downs, Calvin Borel proves his superiority on that track by winning his 3rd Kentucky Derby in the last 4 years.  He was onboard Super Saver, the Todd Pletcher trained colt, that outlasted Ice Box, Paddy O’Prado, and 17 other horses to win the 2010 Kentucky Derby.

After much had been made about Pletcher’s lacking resume item, Super Saver’s win gave him his first career Derby victory.

Kentucky Derby order of finish and video replay footage

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Here’s Mike Welsch’s expert take on all of the workouts for the Kentucky Derby contenders:

Lookin At Lucky: Anyone looking to fault the Derby favorite will be hard-pressed off what I’ve seen over the last 1 1/2 weeks. He may look a bit shaky when he first jogs onto the track each morning, but his gallops have been good and his last two works were excellent, including his 1:12.01 six-furlong drill April 21, after which he galloped out a strong seven-eighths and mile. If he gets around clean from the rail, he’ll be tough to beat.

Ice Box: I have had mixed reactions watching him train during the week, although I really liked the way he galloped out after showing some uncharacteristic speed during his final half-mile drill in 46.38 here last week. He should run his race, which means he’ll drop well back and try to pick up as many pieces as he can at the end.

Noble's Promise

Noble’s Promise: I have found no real chinks in his armor in the morning, and he finished willingly enough in his final prep. My gut reaction, though, says it’s got to be tough for any horse to give his peak performance in a grueling race such as the Derby after recuperating from a lung issue, no matter how minor.

Super Saver: He’s trained as well as anyone here on a daily basis for the last 10 days and obviously loves this strip. He was not asked to extend himself in a very sharp but easy final half-mile drill with jockey Calvin Borel aboard, and everything I’ve seen suggests he’s ready for a peak performance in the third start of his form cycle. Can Calvin make it three of the last four?

Line of David: He had the misfortune of catching a wet track for his final Derby work, and it was obvious he wanted no part of the slop, falling apart very badly down the stretch after showing his usual early zip. Looks like a pace factor at best off that effort and will really be up against the 8-ball if the forecast for heavy rains before post time holds true.

Stately Victor: Did all his major work at the Trackside Training Center, but visually, he made a great first impression Thursday. Was his last a fluke, or could he be a horse peaking at the right time? That’s the $64,000 question in this corner.

American Lion: He couldn’t have looked any better on a regular basis since arriving from Keeneland last week, and he arguably was the smoothest mover of this bunch in the morning. Turned in an easy but somewhat uninspiring final work, albeit over a wet track, earlier this week, and he does have a running style that seems to clash with the profile of this race.

Dean’s Kitten: Like stablemate Stately Victor, he didn’t ship over from Trackside until Wednesday, so there’s been very little opportunity to form an opinion, other than he does display the type of high action one would expect from a turf specialist.

Make Music for Me: I didn’t pay all that much attention to him most of the week since it seemed unlikely he’d crack the starting lineup. His last local work was fair to average at best with a lackluster gallop-out.

Sidney's Candy

Paddy O’Prado: As noted above, he’s been machine-like in his efficiency during routine morning gallops, chugging along with the look of a horse who can run all day. His final Derby prep may have been the most impressive of any I saw last week, five furlongs in 58.44 seconds with a six-furlong gallop-out of 1:11.06 and seven-eighths in 1:25.62. That drill came over a very sloppy track, and with the forecast calling for rain, a wet track would only seem to enhance his chances. Peaking at the right time, and in my mind the best value play in this evenly matched lineup.

Devil May Care: Trained as well as anybody when sent out with blinkers during her first several local sessions, including a five-furlong drill last Saturday in which she just cruised around in 1:00.10 before galloping out extremely well. She has not looked quite as sharp since returning to the track earlier this week, each of those trips coming without the shades, and I am really banking on the blinkers to bring out the absolute best in her on Derby Day.

Conveyance: He has put his abundant speed on display in a pair of recent workouts, both of which were hard to fault, although stretching that speed out to 10 furlongs with expected pace pressure from the likes of Line of David and perhaps others may be stretching his limitations just a bit too far.

Jackson Bend: Game little colt has always been a good work horse, and his final Derby drill was no exception, a solid half in 47.04 and a gallop-out that shaded 1:00, but his propensity to drift sideways and fight his rider on a regular basis in the mornings does shake the confidence level a bit. He always runs his race, but 1 1/4 miles might prove a little more than he can handle.

Mission Impazible: Another of the Pletchers who has trained extremely well over the last couple of weeks both here and in south Florida. Made short work of former Derby contender and stablemate Rule during the latter stages of each of his last two breezes, and his energy level has continued to be high all week. Gives the notion he’s sitting on his best yet.

Discreetly Mine: The least respected of the Pletcher quartet in this field, but he has more than held his own during the group’s final preparations leading up to the race. As with Jackson Bend, however, 10 furlongs may be a bit more than he can handle at this level.

Awesome Act: I wasn’t overly impressed with his first local work, but he definitely improved the second time around, although did still struggle to get by his older minor-stakes-winning stablemate Peace Town at the end of that drill. Getting mixed signals from this one, and he figures to be overbet some in light of his well-documented trip in the Wood.

Dublin: He gave his rider all he could handle trying to bear out around the final turn of his most recent Derby work, and he hasn’t been the smoothest mover out there in the morning since coming out of the work.

Backtalk: I did not get to see his final prep, which came over at Keeneland, but was not impressed with the choppy way he got over the ground galloping here Thursday.

Homeboykris: He turned in a couple of easy, albeit unspectacular, workouts since arriving from south Florida last week. Winless since the Champagne. Seems overmatched in his current form.

Sidney’s Candy: Rated well enough off stablemate Via Verde in a fast six-furlong drill last week, a positive sign for a colt who has had the majority of his success on the lead. Showed a nice turn of foot during the middle stages of that work, although he needed some urging to finally pull away from his mate at the end, and the gallop-out was relatively nonexistent. Like Awesome Act, he is giving mixed signals, and for me is among the major question marks Saturday.

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The track got wet this Friday, but the workouts didn’t stop!  Paddy O’Prado followed Lookin At Lucky with another blistering workout over the Churchill track.

With the Derby Trial running today at Churchill, we’ll see if the Graded Stakes Earnings list gets a change or not.

By Mike Welsch at DRF.com…

And a few miles away at the Trackside training center, trainer Mike Maker put five-furlong works into both Stately Victor (1:00.60), the Blue Grass winner, and Dean’s Kitten (1:01.20), the winner of the Lane’s End Stakes.

Paddy O’Prado (five furlongs in 58.44 seconds): The versatile and improving Paddy O’Prado was one of the horses who had caught my eye earlier in the week during his routine morning gallops, so his final Derby workout was much anticipated, and this son of El Prado certainly did not disappoint, turning in the most impressive pre-Derby prep of the week.

With exercise rider Tammy Fox, the wife of trainer Dale Romans, in the saddle, Paddy O’Prado gave no real indication of what was to come after cruising through an opening eighth in 12.20 seconds. He then proceeded to pick up the pace with each successive furlong around the turn and into the stretch, posting fractions of 23.60, 35, and 46.44 seconds, continuing strongly down the stretch and past the wire with little urging before turning in an eye-catching gallop-out of six furlongs in 1:11.06 and seven-eighths in 1:25.62.

Paddy O'Prado, #19 on the Graded Earnings List, worked a bullet over the sloppy Churchill track.

Obviously, it is hard to factor what part the wet and sealed racetrack might have played in the move, but regardless, there is little doubt this is a colt who is on top of his game and peaking at exactly the right time.

Ice Box (four furlongs in 46.38 seconds): Trainer Nick Zito said Thursday, “You’re going to see something really cool from Ice Box tomorrow. He’s going to work a little quicker this time.” And sure enough, he was right.

With exercise rider Megan Smillie aboard, Ice Box turned in what was undoubtedly a very purposeful final Derby prep on Friday. Breaking off at the half-mile pole alongside stablemate Morning Line, Ice Box was full of run from the outset, shading 23 seconds for his opening quarter-mile. Ice Box easily pulled away from his mate once settling into the stretch while under steady urging to the wire. Then, like Paddy O’Prado, he continued on willingly around the turn to gallop out five-eighths in 59.40 seconds.

It was not what one might have expected to see from a horse who had rallied from last to win the Florida Derby in his previous start. But as Zito, a two-time Derby winner, said, “One thing about the Derby you have to keep tweaking. You can’t be over, you can’t be under, you’ve got to get it just right.”

Eskendereya had another good morning, seemingly handling the slop without any issues, as did Devil May CareMission Impazible has looked good all week both here and before leaving his winter home in south Florida, although he did appear a little uncomfortable over the dampened surface while galloping before the break.

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Here’s the list of Graded Stakes Earners that have stated they are pointing towards the Kentucky Derby.  This doesn’t include the fillies and D’ Funnybone.

The blue horses below were the winners of the Arkansas Derby and the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes on April 10th.  The Top 20 qualify for the Derby!

Graded Stakes Earnings list for the starters of the Kentucky Derby on May 1st

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Arkansas Derby – Oaklawn Park

1st – Line of David
2nd – Super Saver
3rd – Dublin

Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – Keeneland

1st – Stately Victor
2nd – Paddy O’Prado
3rd – First Dude

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Here are the entries for this weekend’s last two Kentucky Derby prep races.  Check out the Graded Earnings list to see who’s on the verge of making or missing the starting gate on May 1st.  Remember, the Top 20 Graded Earners will be allowed to run in the Kentucky Derby.

Arkansas Derby – Oaklawn Park

Noble's Promise, Super Saver, Dublin take on the Arkansas Derby field at Oaklawn Park

Noble’s Promise is a shoe in for the Grand Daddy, currently ranking 3rd in Graded Stakes Earnings with $708,000.  Dublin looks to have previously secured his starting position in the Kentucky Derby, boasting the #17 position with graded earnings at $273,208.  However, Uh Oh Bango (#25), SuperSaver (#29), and Northern Giant (#36) all need a big score in the Arkansas Derby to qualify for the Kentucky Derby on May 1st.

Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – Keeneland

The last major prep for the Kentucky Derby, will the graded earnings list shift significantly?
This will be an interesting race, as it’s likely the last race in which these horses can secure their place in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.  Currently, Interactif is sitting in the #18 spot with $270,450.  The Blue Grass has all sorts of bubble horses, including Aikenite (#22), Make Music For Me (#23), Odysseus (#26), Pleasant Prince (#30), and Paddy O’Prado (#37).  How the Toyota Blue Grass shapes up will have a huge impact on who we see make, and who we see get bumped from, the Kentucky Derby.

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