Devil May Care

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Blind Luck, with this good looking win, stamps herself as the leader of the 3-year old filly division.  She topped a tough field, including Kentucky Derby runner Devil May Care, in a race that didn’t suit Blind Luck’s running style.

Blind Luck went right to the back of the pack, as per her normal race setup.  However, the fractions this race were incredibly slow.  The quarter in 24.03, the half in 49.45, and no position changes since the start of the race.

Blind Luck Devil May Care in Alabama Stakes at Saratoga horse racing

Blind Luck

Normally, this type of slow speed upfront bodes well for the front runners, and makes a closing run, which Blind Luck prefers, more difficult.  The front runners haven’t exerted as much energy with a slow pace, and are thus able to hold onto their speed better down the stretch.  However, Blind Luck was able to overcome this, going 4 wide on the outside and running right by Devil May Care and holding off Havre De Grace at the wire.

The 3/5 favorite, Devil May Care, ran a disappointing 4th, much to the dismay of many show bettors.  The final time was 2:03.89 and Blind Luck gains the momentum as the best in the 3-year old filly division.

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Devil May Care faces Blind Luck in the Alabama Stakes at Saratoga

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Devil May Care will break from post #2.  Blind Luck out of post #4.

Devil May Care is the 7-5 morning line favorite.  Blind Luck is close behind as the 8-5 second choice.

Devil May Care is 3 for 5 this year with Grade 1 victories in the Mother Goose and Coaching Club American Oaks.  Blind Luck is 4 for 6 with wins in the G1 Las Virgenes and the Delaware Oaks.

Devil May Care had a poor showing in the Kentucky Derby.  Blind Luck came from way back to win the Kentucky Oaks.

Devil May Care will have Saratoga meet leading jockey Johnny Velazquez in the irons.  Blind Luck with Del Mar’s leading rider Joel Rosario.

These two 3-year old females will battle for division domination this Saturday in the Grade 1, $500,000 Alabama at Saratoga.  Make sure you catch all the action this weekend live from the Spa.  You can watch and bet on TwinSpires or catch the post race video here on HorseRacingInside.com.

Devil May Care vs. Blind Luck Alabama Saratoga Velazquez Rosario

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Here’s Mike Welsch’s expert take on all of the workouts for the Kentucky Derby contenders:

Lookin At Lucky: Anyone looking to fault the Derby favorite will be hard-pressed off what I’ve seen over the last 1 1/2 weeks. He may look a bit shaky when he first jogs onto the track each morning, but his gallops have been good and his last two works were excellent, including his 1:12.01 six-furlong drill April 21, after which he galloped out a strong seven-eighths and mile. If he gets around clean from the rail, he’ll be tough to beat.

Ice Box: I have had mixed reactions watching him train during the week, although I really liked the way he galloped out after showing some uncharacteristic speed during his final half-mile drill in 46.38 here last week. He should run his race, which means he’ll drop well back and try to pick up as many pieces as he can at the end.

Noble's Promise

Noble’s Promise: I have found no real chinks in his armor in the morning, and he finished willingly enough in his final prep. My gut reaction, though, says it’s got to be tough for any horse to give his peak performance in a grueling race such as the Derby after recuperating from a lung issue, no matter how minor.

Super Saver: He’s trained as well as anyone here on a daily basis for the last 10 days and obviously loves this strip. He was not asked to extend himself in a very sharp but easy final half-mile drill with jockey Calvin Borel aboard, and everything I’ve seen suggests he’s ready for a peak performance in the third start of his form cycle. Can Calvin make it three of the last four?

Line of David: He had the misfortune of catching a wet track for his final Derby work, and it was obvious he wanted no part of the slop, falling apart very badly down the stretch after showing his usual early zip. Looks like a pace factor at best off that effort and will really be up against the 8-ball if the forecast for heavy rains before post time holds true.

Stately Victor: Did all his major work at the Trackside Training Center, but visually, he made a great first impression Thursday. Was his last a fluke, or could he be a horse peaking at the right time? That’s the $64,000 question in this corner.

American Lion: He couldn’t have looked any better on a regular basis since arriving from Keeneland last week, and he arguably was the smoothest mover of this bunch in the morning. Turned in an easy but somewhat uninspiring final work, albeit over a wet track, earlier this week, and he does have a running style that seems to clash with the profile of this race.

Dean’s Kitten: Like stablemate Stately Victor, he didn’t ship over from Trackside until Wednesday, so there’s been very little opportunity to form an opinion, other than he does display the type of high action one would expect from a turf specialist.

Make Music for Me: I didn’t pay all that much attention to him most of the week since it seemed unlikely he’d crack the starting lineup. His last local work was fair to average at best with a lackluster gallop-out.

Sidney's Candy

Paddy O’Prado: As noted above, he’s been machine-like in his efficiency during routine morning gallops, chugging along with the look of a horse who can run all day. His final Derby prep may have been the most impressive of any I saw last week, five furlongs in 58.44 seconds with a six-furlong gallop-out of 1:11.06 and seven-eighths in 1:25.62. That drill came over a very sloppy track, and with the forecast calling for rain, a wet track would only seem to enhance his chances. Peaking at the right time, and in my mind the best value play in this evenly matched lineup.

Devil May Care: Trained as well as anybody when sent out with blinkers during her first several local sessions, including a five-furlong drill last Saturday in which she just cruised around in 1:00.10 before galloping out extremely well. She has not looked quite as sharp since returning to the track earlier this week, each of those trips coming without the shades, and I am really banking on the blinkers to bring out the absolute best in her on Derby Day.

Conveyance: He has put his abundant speed on display in a pair of recent workouts, both of which were hard to fault, although stretching that speed out to 10 furlongs with expected pace pressure from the likes of Line of David and perhaps others may be stretching his limitations just a bit too far.

Jackson Bend: Game little colt has always been a good work horse, and his final Derby drill was no exception, a solid half in 47.04 and a gallop-out that shaded 1:00, but his propensity to drift sideways and fight his rider on a regular basis in the mornings does shake the confidence level a bit. He always runs his race, but 1 1/4 miles might prove a little more than he can handle.

Mission Impazible: Another of the Pletchers who has trained extremely well over the last couple of weeks both here and in south Florida. Made short work of former Derby contender and stablemate Rule during the latter stages of each of his last two breezes, and his energy level has continued to be high all week. Gives the notion he’s sitting on his best yet.

Discreetly Mine: The least respected of the Pletcher quartet in this field, but he has more than held his own during the group’s final preparations leading up to the race. As with Jackson Bend, however, 10 furlongs may be a bit more than he can handle at this level.

Awesome Act: I wasn’t overly impressed with his first local work, but he definitely improved the second time around, although did still struggle to get by his older minor-stakes-winning stablemate Peace Town at the end of that drill. Getting mixed signals from this one, and he figures to be overbet some in light of his well-documented trip in the Wood.

Dublin: He gave his rider all he could handle trying to bear out around the final turn of his most recent Derby work, and he hasn’t been the smoothest mover out there in the morning since coming out of the work.

Backtalk: I did not get to see his final prep, which came over at Keeneland, but was not impressed with the choppy way he got over the ground galloping here Thursday.

Homeboykris: He turned in a couple of easy, albeit unspectacular, workouts since arriving from south Florida last week. Winless since the Champagne. Seems overmatched in his current form.

Sidney’s Candy: Rated well enough off stablemate Via Verde in a fast six-furlong drill last week, a positive sign for a colt who has had the majority of his success on the lead. Showed a nice turn of foot during the middle stages of that work, although he needed some urging to finally pull away from his mate at the end, and the gallop-out was relatively nonexistent. Like Awesome Act, he is giving mixed signals, and for me is among the major question marks Saturday.

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The lone female scheduled for the Derby, Devil May Care

Devil May Care, the filly trained by Todd Pletcher, will be entered into the Kentucky Derby and, as DRF reports, unlikely to even be entered into the Oaks.

We have a girl in the field this year!

Also, Three Chimney Farms is stating that Rule might be out of the Derby.  Pletcher has also stated that Interactif is extremely questionable.  This would lend Jackson Bend and Backtalk an entry form for May 1st.

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Here’s the Graded Stakes Earnings list, provided by HorseRacingNation, for the May 1st Kentucky Derby.  Top 20 make the starting gate on May 1st at Churchill Downs.

Originally posted by HorseRacingNation.

Graded stakes rankings after April 4th for the Kentucky Derby

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