Backtalk

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Here’s Mike Welsch’s expert take on all of the workouts for the Kentucky Derby contenders:

Lookin At Lucky: Anyone looking to fault the Derby favorite will be hard-pressed off what I’ve seen over the last 1 1/2 weeks. He may look a bit shaky when he first jogs onto the track each morning, but his gallops have been good and his last two works were excellent, including his 1:12.01 six-furlong drill April 21, after which he galloped out a strong seven-eighths and mile. If he gets around clean from the rail, he’ll be tough to beat.

Ice Box: I have had mixed reactions watching him train during the week, although I really liked the way he galloped out after showing some uncharacteristic speed during his final half-mile drill in 46.38 here last week. He should run his race, which means he’ll drop well back and try to pick up as many pieces as he can at the end.

Noble's Promise

Noble’s Promise: I have found no real chinks in his armor in the morning, and he finished willingly enough in his final prep. My gut reaction, though, says it’s got to be tough for any horse to give his peak performance in a grueling race such as the Derby after recuperating from a lung issue, no matter how minor.

Super Saver: He’s trained as well as anyone here on a daily basis for the last 10 days and obviously loves this strip. He was not asked to extend himself in a very sharp but easy final half-mile drill with jockey Calvin Borel aboard, and everything I’ve seen suggests he’s ready for a peak performance in the third start of his form cycle. Can Calvin make it three of the last four?

Line of David: He had the misfortune of catching a wet track for his final Derby work, and it was obvious he wanted no part of the slop, falling apart very badly down the stretch after showing his usual early zip. Looks like a pace factor at best off that effort and will really be up against the 8-ball if the forecast for heavy rains before post time holds true.

Stately Victor: Did all his major work at the Trackside Training Center, but visually, he made a great first impression Thursday. Was his last a fluke, or could he be a horse peaking at the right time? That’s the $64,000 question in this corner.

American Lion: He couldn’t have looked any better on a regular basis since arriving from Keeneland last week, and he arguably was the smoothest mover of this bunch in the morning. Turned in an easy but somewhat uninspiring final work, albeit over a wet track, earlier this week, and he does have a running style that seems to clash with the profile of this race.

Dean’s Kitten: Like stablemate Stately Victor, he didn’t ship over from Trackside until Wednesday, so there’s been very little opportunity to form an opinion, other than he does display the type of high action one would expect from a turf specialist.

Make Music for Me: I didn’t pay all that much attention to him most of the week since it seemed unlikely he’d crack the starting lineup. His last local work was fair to average at best with a lackluster gallop-out.

Sidney's Candy

Paddy O’Prado: As noted above, he’s been machine-like in his efficiency during routine morning gallops, chugging along with the look of a horse who can run all day. His final Derby prep may have been the most impressive of any I saw last week, five furlongs in 58.44 seconds with a six-furlong gallop-out of 1:11.06 and seven-eighths in 1:25.62. That drill came over a very sloppy track, and with the forecast calling for rain, a wet track would only seem to enhance his chances. Peaking at the right time, and in my mind the best value play in this evenly matched lineup.

Devil May Care: Trained as well as anybody when sent out with blinkers during her first several local sessions, including a five-furlong drill last Saturday in which she just cruised around in 1:00.10 before galloping out extremely well. She has not looked quite as sharp since returning to the track earlier this week, each of those trips coming without the shades, and I am really banking on the blinkers to bring out the absolute best in her on Derby Day.

Conveyance: He has put his abundant speed on display in a pair of recent workouts, both of which were hard to fault, although stretching that speed out to 10 furlongs with expected pace pressure from the likes of Line of David and perhaps others may be stretching his limitations just a bit too far.

Jackson Bend: Game little colt has always been a good work horse, and his final Derby drill was no exception, a solid half in 47.04 and a gallop-out that shaded 1:00, but his propensity to drift sideways and fight his rider on a regular basis in the mornings does shake the confidence level a bit. He always runs his race, but 1 1/4 miles might prove a little more than he can handle.

Mission Impazible: Another of the Pletchers who has trained extremely well over the last couple of weeks both here and in south Florida. Made short work of former Derby contender and stablemate Rule during the latter stages of each of his last two breezes, and his energy level has continued to be high all week. Gives the notion he’s sitting on his best yet.

Discreetly Mine: The least respected of the Pletcher quartet in this field, but he has more than held his own during the group’s final preparations leading up to the race. As with Jackson Bend, however, 10 furlongs may be a bit more than he can handle at this level.

Awesome Act: I wasn’t overly impressed with his first local work, but he definitely improved the second time around, although did still struggle to get by his older minor-stakes-winning stablemate Peace Town at the end of that drill. Getting mixed signals from this one, and he figures to be overbet some in light of his well-documented trip in the Wood.

Dublin: He gave his rider all he could handle trying to bear out around the final turn of his most recent Derby work, and he hasn’t been the smoothest mover out there in the morning since coming out of the work.

Backtalk: I did not get to see his final prep, which came over at Keeneland, but was not impressed with the choppy way he got over the ground galloping here Thursday.

Homeboykris: He turned in a couple of easy, albeit unspectacular, workouts since arriving from south Florida last week. Winless since the Champagne. Seems overmatched in his current form.

Sidney’s Candy: Rated well enough off stablemate Via Verde in a fast six-furlong drill last week, a positive sign for a colt who has had the majority of his success on the lead. Showed a nice turn of foot during the middle stages of that work, although he needed some urging to finally pull away from his mate at the end, and the gallop-out was relatively nonexistent. Like Awesome Act, he is giving mixed signals, and for me is among the major question marks Saturday.

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The lone female scheduled for the Derby, Devil May Care

Devil May Care, the filly trained by Todd Pletcher, will be entered into the Kentucky Derby and, as DRF reports, unlikely to even be entered into the Oaks.

We have a girl in the field this year!

Also, Three Chimney Farms is stating that Rule might be out of the Derby.  Pletcher has also stated that Interactif is extremely questionable.  This would lend Jackson Bend and Backtalk an entry form for May 1st.

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With a track listed as “muddy” and the news about Eskendereya being the talk of the track, here are this Sunday’s Derby workouts…

By Mike Welsch

Dublin (five furlongs in 1:02.88): After creating a bit of a stir here Sunday morning, when he attempted to bolt on a couple of occasions on the far turn during a routine gallop, Dublin returned before dawn for his final Derby prep, which came in company with stablemate Luv Guv.

Dublin

With jockey Terry Thompson aboard, Dublin broke off about three lengths behind his partner but quickly narrowed the gap while in hand through an opening eighth and quarter-mile of 12.42 and 24.50 seconds. But it became apparent that Thompson had his hands full with Dublin leaving the three-eighths pole as he attempted to bear out around the final bend. The little wrestling match slowed Dublin to a 37.56 three-eighths split, after which he leveled off a bit better once finally straightening away for the run down the stretch. With a little tap of encouragement, Dublin gradually began to pull clear of his mate and probably did his best running through the final sixteenth of a mile, although for the second time in less than a week, his gallop out was nonexistent(six furlongs in 1:18.22).

The sudden propensity to drift out around the turn and the failure to gallop out with any serious energy cannot be taken as positive signs less than one week out from the big event.

Make Music For Me (five furlongs in 1:02.40): Probably an insignificant workout for the Derby since he’s buried pretty far down the graded earnings list; there was not much to like about this move regardless of his starting status. He completed his final quarter in a lackluster 25.73 and like Dublin didn’t gallop out very well, pulling up six furlongs in 1:17.79.

Backtalk (five furlongs in 1:01.60 at Keeneland, according to track clockers): He shipped to Keeneland, where he breezed five furlongs in company with stablemate Sangre Frio. It’s starting to look like Backtalk might qualify for the Derby lineup following Escandereya’s defection Sunday.

Several Derby contenders slated to work Monday were impressive galloping over the drying out surface on Sunday morning, including Looking At LuckyAmerican Lion, and Line of David, who changed leads on cue through the stretch after failing to do so over the wet track the previous day.

I’m becoming a little concerned by the recent lack of activity from Endorsement, who did not come to the track to train Sunday after jogging each of the two previous mornings.

Jackson Bend was the only Derby horse to train before the renovation break. He tossed his head several times and appeared to want to drift just a bit while galloping to the inside of his unidentified stablemate.

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Here’s the list of Graded Stakes Earners that have stated they are pointing towards the Kentucky Derby.  This doesn’t include the fillies and D’ Funnybone.

The blue horses below were the winners of the Arkansas Derby and the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes on April 10th.  The Top 20 qualify for the Derby!

Graded Stakes Earnings list for the starters of the Kentucky Derby on May 1st

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Here’s the Graded Stakes Earnings list, provided by HorseRacingNation, for the May 1st Kentucky Derby.  Top 20 make the starting gate on May 1st at Churchill Downs.

Originally posted by HorseRacingNation.

Graded stakes rankings after April 4th for the Kentucky Derby

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Santa Anita Derby – Santa Anita Park

1st – Sidney’s Candy
2nd – Setsuko
3rd – Lookin At Lucky

Wood Memorial – Aqueduct

1st – Eskendereya
2nd – Jackson Bend
3rd – Awesome Act

Illinois Derby – Hawthorne

1st – American Lion
2nd – Yawanna Twist
3rd – Backtalk

Bay Shore Stakes – Aqueduct

1st – Eightyfiveinafifty
2nd – Hurricane Ike
3rd – Remand

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Santa Anita Derby – Santa Anita

Entries for the Santa Anita Derby 2010Derby prep winners Caracortado, Alphie’s Bet, and Sidney’s Candy face the 2009 2-year old champion, and early Derby favorite, Lookin At Lucky in the 2010 Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park.

Wood Memorial – Aqueduct

Entries for the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct 2010Jackson Bend, 2nd in the Fountain of Youth, faces off against Eskendereya again.  Also in the picture are Derby prep winners Schoolyard Dreams and Awesome Act.  Even though the Wood Memorial only attracts 6 runners this year, it’s anyone’s race!

Bay Shore Stakes – Aqueduct

2010 Program for the Bay Shore Stakes at Aqueduct

Illinois Derby – Hawthorne

2010 Past Performances for the Illinois Derby at HawthorneSome big Derby prep names in this race.  Backtalk, Dave in Dixie, Turf Melody, Yawanna Twist, and American Lion headline the 2010 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne.  Don’t be surprised if you see one of these horses win the Derby on May 1st as a middle odds starter.

Carter Handicap – Aqueduct

Carter Handicap at Aqueduct 2010 entriesMusket Man, 2009 Derby and Preakness show horse, starts on his comeback trail in the Carter Handicap.  He’s up against stiff competition in 4-year old Munnings.  This should be a great race!

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